State of the Program 11/11/2022

    Yes, this State of the Program blog is coming off of the Kent State disaster. I might not even recap the game, I can sum it up in two sentences. The offense is an absolute disaster, the line needs to find some answers, Kent mopped our own field with us in a 40-6 burial. The defense actually played fine, pitching a first quarter shutout. There is only so much you can do when the offense cannot move the ball. BG also capped off a 3 game win streak, going 2-1 since the Miami OH game when in my State of the Program blog back then basically said CMU and WMU were must win to go bowling. I am still feeling pretty good about where we are at right now, but I wanted to highlight some stats I took the time to find, they are alarming in terms of trying to make a bowl game. 

    The last time BG has beaten a team that ended MAC play with a winning record was 2015, the last year BG went bowling and won the MAC. Here is the MAC records of our wins broken down by the year/coach that won the games.

Mike Jinks

MAC teams beaten from 2016-2017: Akron, Kent State, Buffalo, Miami OH, Kent State

Their MAC records: 11-29 (28% win percentage)

Carl Pelini

MAC teams beaten in 2018: Central Michigan, Akron

Their MAC records: 2-14 (13% win percentage)

Scot Loeffler

MAC teams beaten from 2019-2021

Their MAC records: 8-24 (25% win percentage)

2022 (so far)

MAC teams beaten: Akron, Miami OH, CMU, WMU

Their MAC records: 7-17 (29% win percentage)

    The one thing all our MAC opponents have in common, never finishing better than 4-4 in MAC play and never going bowling (Toledo in 2019 was 6-6 but did not go bowling). The record of our last 2 opponents (Toledo and Ohio) is 10-2 in MAC play. So, if this team wants to bowl, they need to beat a team that will also bowl and have a positive MAC record for the first time in 7 YEARS! 

photo: I took this one :)

The Good

Meemaw always said give me the good news first, so here we go. 

1. 3 Game Win Streak

    Since the Miami OH game, Bowling Green was able to beat Central Michigan on the road and Western Michigan to cap off the first 3 game win streak since the end of the 2016 season. The wins against the directional Michigan schools felt like a must to stay bowl eligible, especially since Kent was such a disaster of a game. The defense was the star of the show, holding Miami and CMU under 20 points and holding WMU to just 9. I stressed for a week after the Buffalo disaster this team needed to win 3 straight and they did, all the credit in the world to the players and the staff especially Coach Loeffler for rallying the troops. 

2. The Defense

    The Falcon defense has been lights out over the past month. Even though they were getting pushed around in the run game against Kent, that offense forces defenses to stop the explosive plays and then win in the red zone. Plus the offense could not even pick up first downs let alone score, so the defense was hung out to dry. In the 2 wins, the defense was dominant, really winning the WMU game and forcing CMU to punt early and give the offense great field position. I would highlight the D line and Chris Bacon, as the D line just toasted the blocking in the Miami, CMU and WMU games. This group has made big strides since MAC play started. The defense is going to need to dig deep as Toledo and Ohio both boasts fantastic QBs. On the season BG is among top in FBS in sacks and has been doing a great job covering with young corners, aided by impact transfer LB DJ Taylor.

3. Bowl Eligibility is on the Table

    I know a lot of people are down after the 40-6 drubbing on Wednesday but this team is still very much capable of bowling. Just needing one win in the last 2 games is a heck of a lot better of a place to be considering this team has not been bowling in 7 years and in every year a bowl game was taken off the table before weeknight MACtion even started! BG has 5 FBS wins this year which is a lot more than in past years and needs to get one more to reach bowl eligibility. 

The Bad

1. The Offense

    The offense still seems to struggle to play with rhythm and take control of a game. The CMU outing was pretty good but just 17 points against Miami, 13 against WMU, then a combined 13 against Buffalo and Kent. Straight up unacceptable. Everyone needs to play better, plain and simple. The coaches also need to coach better. I have been really impressed with the play calls but there has not been enough quick throws to our play makers. We run a PRO Style offense, something that requires a good offensive line. While the line looks fine in some games, in others (most recently Kent) they got beat like drums. Matt has zero time in the pocket so we need more rollouts, more quick patterns and more bunch sets that can get pick plays going. CJ Lewis has just 5 catches in the last 4 games, that seems like an issue. We have all of these deep threats like CJ and Tyrone Broden but our O line cannot hold the pocket long enough for those routes, so scheme up quicker developing breaks. We still have not had the passing attack break 300 yards this season, and running the ball against better teams like Marshal, Buffalo, and Kent has been impossible. To get a 6th win, the offense is going to have to make the leap from doing "just enough to win" to "winning the game". 

2. Penalties

    BG went from 116th in penalties to 115th since my last State of the Program blog. CMU was an outlier with 17 penalties but still, there have been too many self inflicted penalties. False starts, offsides, personal fouls, those are the unacceptable penalties this team cannot afford against Toledo and Ohio. 

3. Blow Out losses

    BG has been going through a massive rebuild under Coach Loeffler. Blowout losses even to MAC schools were to be expected, but in Year 4 they should be a rarity. BG's MAC schedule divided in half would be Ohio, Toledo, Buffalo, and Kent State at the top, and CMU, WMU, Miami OH, and Akron at the bottom. Credit to the Orange and Brown for beating all 4 of the lower MAC schools, but in just 2 games against the harder portion of BG's schedule they have lost a combined 78-13. That is shockingly bad and not a great foreshadow of what is to come against the final 2 teams. CMU at 4-6 is the only MAC school that BG has beaten that may go bowling. Marshall is 5-4 but with 2 FCS wins, they will need to finish 7-5 to be bowl eligible. So again, BG has yet to beat a team that will go bowling. 

Takeaways

    This team is 5-5 with still a great chance to go bowling. My biggest takeaway is this team will not quit! After the EKU game I thought they might fold, nope, just gonna upset Marshall on homecoming the week after they trounced Notre Dame. After the Buffalo disaster I figured we would get rag dolled in MAC play, nope, going to just rattle off an epic 3 game win streak. So after this Kent game, I am expecting this team to dig deep yet again and find a way to upset a team and go bowling. Would be sweet to beat Toledo but just 1 win is needed to play in December! Coach Loeffler is going to rally the troops, the leaders need to inspire, and this team can still rattle off 2 massive wins. 

On Offense, we need help. The O line has looked straight up bad against the better teams. Even in the wins, Matt has not had great pockets but re-watching the CMU game I saw great schemes that got receivers open quickly that I did not see against Kent. The LT position specifically needs to buckle down and flat out play better. I think Kam and Tunde will both be excellent players in the years to come but this team needs a win now. Once the O line blocks better, the whole offense plays better. It is the most important position group in football for a reason. Credit this offense for developing the run game better during the 3 game win streak and for Matt not turning the ball over with just 2 picks in the last 4 games, but we also only have 3 TDs in that stretch. Also do not even get me started on the red zone offense, which again usually falls on the line. 

For the Defense, this group had a few stinkers early but really game out strong over the last month. Dominant performances over CMU and WMU but also a lack of ability to handle mobile QBs which was seen in the Akron and Kent games. Overall this group has come a long way since the EKU game and during the 3 game win streak really forced opponents to try and do too much resulting in sacks and turnovers. To be fair to the offense, the defense has had it's best games against 3 backup QBs so Toledo and Ohio are great tests to see what this unit is really made of. 

Special teams was a disaster in the Kent game but other than that doing pretty god. Sami Sir has improved a lot (again, throw away the Kent film) and really aided in these close wins while Mason Lawler has done a good job kicking for the most part. Returns have had some good ones but also some stinkers where I am left wishing they just fair caught everyone. Ta'ron Keith's 83 yard return basically won the WMU game in terms of getting us to finally score while the defense continued to anchor the game. 

Future Looking

    I still feel really good about the state of the program. That may change depending on the next 2 games but this team is nothing but resilient. A 5-5 record at this point in the season is a real change of pace for Bowling Green Football. 4 MAC wins are the most in a season since 2015, 5 FBS wins are the most in a season since 2015, and this team still has a lot to play for. A win over our rival Toledo who just clinched the MAC West or Ohio (who wins the East if they beat Ball State next week) would be a great way to earn our 6th win. Even if this team losses both, I would for sure like to see just better games than 40-6 and 38-7. I have all the faith in the world in this staff and going into 2023 it will be a do or die year in terms of ending the bowl drought if they cannot this year. Hopefully the offense can find some answers.