Collège Football Win Totals 2025

 The 2025 college football season starts in less than a week! Week 0 is not the true start of the season to me but it is a cool appetizer. I will probably even write up all my straight bets throughout the year. I was red hot last year in my win totals, a perfect 8–0. Despite missing the first half of the season with basic training, I crushed the straight bets as well throughout officer candidate school. I guess the gambling fortunes were on my side! 

Last year’s win totals: 

• Vanderbilt Over 2.5 (win) 6–6
• Michigan Under 9.5 (win) 7–5
• Army Over 6.5 (win) 10–2
• Navy Over 5.5 (win) 9–3
• ULM Over 1.5 (win) 5–7
• New Mexico Over 2.5 (win) 5–7
• Bowling Green Over 6.5 (win) 7–5
• Eastern Michigan Over 4.5 (win) 5–7

Most of these were super easy. Obviously every bet made has confidence to hit but some of the win totals like Michigan, ULM, and New Mexico were super obvious. Vandy hit their win total when they upset #1 Bama which was awesome. When Michigan lost to Washington it became very clear that bet was in the bag, I still can’t believe that Vegas thought Michigan could go 10–2 after losing so much production. I felt great about Army rebounding back to form under new OC Cody Worley but they stormed through the American in their first year to win it all. The same goes for Navy whos new OC Drew Chronic reignited the offense to a 6–2 AAC record. ULM was another silly line. They got their second win in Bryant Vincent’s revenge game over UAB on Sept 7th and cashed it. New Mexico under Bronco Mendenhall lost an FCS game and I thought I had a loser on my hands but then they rattled off 3 straight wins over rival New Mexico State, Air Force, and Utah State. Bowling Green and EMU were both close ones but BG crushed the MAC with a 6–2 record and Eastern started off the year 5–2 but they flatlined with 5 straight losses but the ticket already cashed. 

2025 Win Totals: 

1. Kent State Over 1.5 

Listen, I know Kent State is by FAR the worst program in FBS right now. They mercifully fired Kenni Burns. Not because he has a 1–23 record as a head coach, but because he took an illegal loan from a booster and has a lot of credit card debt. So the OC Mark Carney is the interim head coach for the year. I have never lost a win total this low (ULM Over 1 in 2021, Bowling Green Over 1.5 in 2021, UMass Over 1.5 in 2023, and ULM Over 1.5 in 2024). I do not think Kent has done a good enough job in the portal or in recruiting but this is still a MAC schedule. Kent has a brutal non-con but HOPEFULLY they can win their FCS game this year. Then they just need ONE MAC win to cash this thing home. This is by far by biggest win total of the year. 

2. Air Force Over 5.5

Air Force has made a bowl game in 13 of the 18 seasons under Troy Calhoun. Last year the Falcons started the year 1–7 before rattling off 4 straight wins. Air Force is typically the steadiest of the service academies but like all G5 teams, especially a service academy, they are due for a dip in performance for a year or two. Air Force has FCS Bucknell, Navy, Army, and UConn in the non-con which is tough. If The Falcs can go 2–2 there I am very confident they can do .500 or better in MWC play and go bowling.

3. Army Over 7.5

A lot of people were writing the Black Knights off. Both Army and Navy struggled in 2022 and 2023 and people were quick to say the new cut blocking ban and NIL/Portal were sending Army and Navy into the basement of the FBS. I went against that trend and crushed it last year with both. This year I ride with Army again. Not just because I am in the Army but because this team will very likely take a step back from 10–2 last year. So if they take a small step back to 8–4 the total still hits. Army has FCS Tarleton, Kansas State, and the CIC games so if they can split that 2–2 this year they would need a 6–2 AAC record to go over. This team went 8–0 last year so even if they drop a couple games to Tulane and UTSA they can still go over. If Army can upset Kansas State in week 2, this total will 100% win.

4. Mississippi State Over 3.5

The Bulldogs were HORRIBLE last year. 0–8 in the SEC, got emasculated by Toledo, but I have a modicum of faith this year. If Miss State can win their FCS and 2 G5 games, they need to steal just ONE SEC win or beat Arizona State. I think they will catch a SEC team sleeping or post coach firing or on quit watch so I can very much see a 4–8 team this year. November 1st Arkansas could easily be led by an interim coach and that is my most likely win going into 2025 for the Bulldogs who in my mind should fire Jeff Lebby if they cannot win just one SEC game this year. 

5. Texas AM Over 7.5

This line blew my mind. Texas AM has a good coach in Mike Elko, a talent laden roster and in my opinion a much better culture than under Jimbo Fisher. I think AM gets revenge on Notre Dame this year on the road and would then need just a 4–4 record in SEC play to cash. Even a loss at ND I still think this team goes 5–3 in SEC play more often than not. I know Texas AM under performs every single year but it underperforms 10 win expectations, the Aggies love going 8–4. 

6. Florida Under 7.5

I think DJ Lagway will struggle to stay healthy and Billy Napier gets fired before the end of the year. I think UF losses to LSU, Miami, Texas and then Texas AM to start the year 2–4 and Napier gets the hook. Maybe he coaches against Miss State but then the bye week before Georgia may be the time to see if they can get a dead cat bounce against Georgia. This is a 6–6 football team at best in my mind. Or it all clicks and then go 10–2 and make the playoff. There is no in between with this Gators team. 

7. Oklahoma State Over 5.5

People are really quick to completely write off a coach who guided the Pokes to a Big12 Championship game in 2023. Last year was a disaster and Mike Gundy knows it but I think people are way too itchy to fire him. He IS Oklahoma State football and deserves a longer leash than one terrible year after almost winning the Big12. This schedule does not do Gundy any favors with Oregon in the non-con but even 2 wins, then a 4–5 Big12 record gets us home. I just believe in Mike Gundy in a college football world full of chaos. 

8. Southern Miss Over 5.5

Charles Huff was basically fired by the Marshall administration going into the 2024 season and then won the freakin Sun Belt conference! He then takes over a down bad Southern Miss program also in the fun belt. He brings a great core of guys over from Marshall to the point where Marshall had to opt out of the bowl game because so many players refused to play without their coach. A very workable non-con with LA Tech and Jackson State from CUSA so if they go 3–1 outside of fun belt play then there is no reason this team cannot go 3–5 in conference to get to a bowl game. 

9. Sam Houston State Over 4.5

KC Keeler had a great year with the Bearkats but then left for Temple. In comes Phil Longo who did not pan out at Wisconsin as the OC but I have a lot of faith that a 10 win team from last year who brings in their former OC and plays in the worst conference can at worst get to 5 wins. The Bearkats only play one P4 team so there is ZERO excuse for Phil Longo’s spread offense to not make a bowl game in 2025. 

10. Bowling Green to Win the MAC +1400

I think Drew Pyne has some serious potential has a mobile, former blue-chip recruit in the MAC. If he lives up to what I am feeling and behind a veteran O-line is the best QB in the MAC there is no reason Eddie Georgie in year 1 cannot take a stab at the championship. +1400 is an amazing price for a Falcons squad that went 6–2 last year in conference play. Coach George did great things at Tennessee State and I have faith he can build upon the foundation laid down by Scot Loeffler.