State of the Program 10/18/2022

It has been over a month since the devastating loss to FCS Eastern Kentucky in 7 overtimes. I was left angered, confused, and questioning everything that I had built up in my head this offseason. However, the narrative of this team, this program, this culture has changed drastically since that game. Bowling Green is 3-2 since that game, 2-1 in MAC play. BG is 2-1 at the Doyt, home wins coming in thrilling fashion especially the game right after the EKU loss, as BG upset Marshall who at the time just trounced #8 Notre Dame. The coaching staff, Coach Loeffler specifically, has blown me away in the 5 games since I sounded the alarm bells. Let us break down the state of the Falcon program at the moment. 

photo: BGSU Athletics

The Good

Meemaw always said give me the good news first, so here we go. 

1. The Defensive Rebounds

    Last Saturday was a masterclass in blue collar football as the Falcon defense dominated Miami OH in a resounding statement for this team. However before the Miami game, against FCS Eastern Kentucky the defense allowed over 400 yards, over 50 points, and could not get off the field on 3rd downs. This defense in 2021 was the bright spot for this team and going into 2022 was once again supposed to anchor this team. Getting boat raced by EKU was a bad look for this defense, but the unit responded the next week. Against Marshall after giving up 14 points in 90 seconds, the BG defense made a STATEMENT and allowed just 17 the rest of the game including overtime. Then the defense had an okay performance against Akron. Only allowing 28 points, plus scoring 7 was pretty good but allowing over 400 yards to a not so good Akron team is still unexpected by this highly touted defense. The next game against Buffalo the defense got bullied and ran all over for almost 300 yards, could not tackle for a darn. Then yet again, the defense rebounds to dominate Miami OH, allowing only 189 yards of offense and less than 100 on the ground to a great run offense. This defense has had it's ups and downs but has shown a dominating force that will be needed the rest of the way. 

2. Matt McDonald

    The Falcon QB gets a paragraph of his own. Matty threw 12 TDs to 7 INTs in 2021. In 2022 through 6 games, Matt has 14 TDs to just 3 INTs. McDonald has shown an elite level of pocket awareness, using his legs to avoid pressure much better than in the previous 2 seasons. Thanks to a plethora of weapons, Matt and this Falcon team has elevated the pass game to the best under Coach Loeffler and played massive parts in beating Marshall and Akron. Against Miami OH the pass game was not great but was hurt by a litany of drops. So far the Buffalo game actually had the worst passing as all the stats game in garbage time. The pass game will need to elevate even further as the meat of the schedule is upon us. 

3. Bowl Eligibility is on the Table

    For the first time since 2015, the Falcons have an actual chance to go bowling. After losing the FCS game, I for sure thought bowling was out of the question. The following win against Marshall revived it in dramatic fashion, proving this team was not going to punt on the season. The non-con ending 1-3 feels worse knowing EKU should have been a win but still allowed for bowl possibility. Beating Akron felt must win, as did Miami after the Buffalo disaster. After the Buffalo game, I thought the season might be over. I said it a million times, this team can find the energy to get off the mat and make a run. The Falcons did just that when they beat Miami OH and the sidelines just looked a million times more energetic and excited for the game. Now the Falcons have to go 3-2 to make 6-6, not as easy task but more than doable if this teams plays each game like they did against Marshall and Miami. 

The Bad

1. Inconsistent Play

    The inconsistencies of this team are still an issue. Amazing defense against Miami and Marshall (for 99% of the game) then a clinic in missed tackles against Buffalo and Akron. This defense filled gaps, just flat out man handled a good Miami O line, yet could not rattle the QB for Eastern Kentucky. Same goes for the offense. Can run the ball against Akron and Miami, other games cannot create a lane if they were directing traffic. Matty and the pass game looks really solid against EKU, Marshall, and Akron. Then goes 4/16 to start the Buffalo game, started the Marshall game 2/9, and could not catch the ball against Miami. I understand each game takes different elements to win, but sometimes with this team an entire position group or unit has just a massive letdown. Gonna need to clean that up in the final 5 games. 

2. Penalties

    While the Miami game was poorly officiated, this Falcon team still is 116/131 FBS teams in terms of penalties. That does not even include all the ones that were declined. Penalties kill drives on offense and extend them on defense. In MAC play, usually the team that wins the turnover and penalty margin wins the game due to the close talent level of all 12 teams. 

Takeaways

    This team is 3-1 in one score games and realistically not including the P5 losses to ranked UCLA and MS State, the Falcons are 3-2. Both sides of the ball have good games but both have inconsistent play. Same goes from every position group from the O Line to the D line, to special teams. 

On Offense, CJ Lewis, OJ Hilaire, and Tyrone Broden have all shown the ability to break the game open as well as Christian Sims and Cavon Croom. True Freshman Harold Fannin has been the most unlikely contributor, making big plays against Miami OH and already racking up 3 touchdowns. The O line pretty much has the starting 5 figured out and now that Jakari Robinson is playing the line has taken big steps forward against Akron and Miami in terms of running the football. The O line seems set at RT Alex Wollschlaeger, RG Bronson Warner, C Jakari Robinson, LG Jalen Grant, with LT seemingly rotating more than the rest with Kam Stewart and Tunde Fatukasi both getting starts this year and Jeremiah Banks-Wall playing as well. The Miami game specifically was a masterclass in creative running and perimeter blocking. Andrew Bench has done a lot of good blocking at TE and fullback this year as well. Jaison Patterson may emerge as the workhorse of this room going forward after he showed maturity in his running the ball the week after the Buffalo disaster. Hopefully the offense can get out to hotter starts the rest of MAC play as painfully slow starts have occurred in EVERY game so far. 

For the Defense, this group has had some stinkers but specifically against Miami showed they could potentially be the best defense in the MAC. The sack numbers are insane, and the veteran leaders such as Chris Bacon, Jordan Anderson, Karl Brooks, Walter Haire, DJ Taylor, Darren Anders and Brock Horne continue to make plays. On the other hand, youngsters Jordan Oladukon, Trent Simms and Deshawn Jones have stepped in for injured Davon Ferguson and specifically against Marshall and Miami locked their guys down. Demetrius Hardamon in my opinion has made the biggest leap in play, earing PFF grades of over 90 against Marshall and Miami, winning MAC defensive player of the week honors for the latter. The defense has only allowed allowed less than 400 yards in one game so far so look for that unit to be needing the biggest improvement going into the back 5 games. 

Special teams is the same as offense and defense, inconsistency but promising outlooks. Sami Sir had a great day punting against Akron and Miami, but showed his inexperience against Buffalo. For the kicking game, Mason Lawler is perfect on extra points but just 4/6 so far in field goals. Lawler will be an X factor moving forward as BG already as shown an affinity for winning close games. The return game honestly has been shaky at best and in my opinion should fair catch more kickoffs. 

Future Looking

    I feel great about the state of the program right now. This team is 3-1 in their last 4 games against MAC or G5 teams. The Miami win was so needed after the Buffalo game and similar to the Marshall rebound, showed this team can beat anyone. Even at a 3-4 record, BG just needs one more MAC win to reach 3 which would be the most in the Loeffler era and tied for most since the BG Football recession. A lot of questions will be answered about this team's inconsistencies against a solid CMU team that has somehow gone just 2-5 so far. At this point to go bowling, BG pretty much has to go 2-0 against the Michigan schools (CMU and WMU) in my mind. That would require just one win against either Kent, Toledo, or Ohio. CMU and WMU are both having down years, so this would be the time to catch them when their spirits are down. If BG goes 1-1 over the next 2 games than it would massively decrease the margin of error to just 1 loss in the hardest 3 game stretch of the schedule. Hopefully the Falcons keep the same energy they had against Miami and continue to elevate their play. Keep in mind that Bowling Green has just 1 MAC loss so potentially finishing the year 5-0 or even 4-1 could see this team battling for a MAC Championship.