State of the Program 10/16/23

State of the Program 10/16/23



(photo via BG Athletics)

Vibes?

    The vibes should be good across BG nation. The win on the road at Buffalo was HUGE. I said it in my recap blog (will publish tonight), this outcome makes perfect sense. BG is going to be inconsistent, meaning that after getting blown out 27-0 they will win this much needed road contest. Going into the year, I really thought this team could have been 1-6 with only an FCS win. I thought more likely was 2-5. I really did not give 3-4 much of a thought, so despite the 2 blowout MAC losses, I am quite impressed with the current state of the program. Getting a P5 win is always a legacy win. Even a 4-8 or 3-9 season I would not look at as an absolute nuclear failure for any MAC team if you sprinkle in a P5 win. BG got a bunch of national attention especially after GTech beat undefeated Miami on the road the next week. I always thought Liberty, Michigan, Ohio would be losses and was hoping to split Miami OH and Buffalo. BG split the last two and got an upset against Georgia Tech so in my mind, this team has some margin for error to go 6-6 with a tough schedule. A schedule that had a closing win total of 4.5 according to Vegas. 

QB1?

    Now looking forward, I think Cam Orth needs to be QB1. I thought Connor was perfect against GTech. He was a leader, he made a ton of accurate throws, and scored twice to lead this team to a legacy win. Bazelak was even out there blocking and running to get this team and himself a monster P5 upset that will go down in BG football lore. With that being said, Connor looked really bad against Ohio and Liberty. Cam looked good last year against Miss State from the SEC, did his best against Big10 power Michigan, and almost led a comeback bowl win last year after Matt McDonald got hurt. Orth even gave us a spark against Liberty. He is now 1-0 in games he starts against G5 teams. If you look at the remaining schedule, we are at the halfway point of October. BG is looking at 4/5 of the remaining games are on weeknights where we can assume it will be cold and dark. 4 of the teams more than likely will not go bowling in Akron, Kent, WMU, and Ball State. I think given how Terion has been running and the 7 O linemen being able to push around Georgia Tech and Buffalo it makes sense to be a ground and pound team moving forward. I know that is Coach Loeffler's ideal BG team, and a blue collar football team that controls the clock and bullies people. Orth is the better QB to run that system and it showed today. Cam needs to make better decisions throwing but he is a good enough passer to where I think his run game should make him QB1. 

Bowl Game? 

    Outside of Toledo, the rest of BG's opponents have a MAC record of 0-3, 0-3, 0-3, and 1-2. Needing 3 of the next 5, a bowl game with this win on the road against Buffalo seems more than attainable. Akron is at home next week to conclude the Saturday MAC season. I have watched a decent bit of Akron this year, they stink. Kent State is also really horrific this year. They are 1-6 and quite frankly should be a no doubt win. After the bye week, weeknight MACtion starts up. This would be an ideal time for Coach Loeffler to get his first win over BGSU's 2nd rival in Kent and to get a winning record against usual bottom dweller Akron. I know MACtion gets crazy, but there is really no excuse for losing either one of those games the way this team has looked. Then you would need just one win against Toledo, Ball State, and Western Michigan. Ball and WMU are the two worst teams in the West so BG actually got really lucky there. 

Run The Ball

The Falcons should be able to run really well over the next 5 games behind a really solid O line. Kam Stewart, Alex Padgett, and Alex Wollschlaeger have been the tackle/center/tackle combo the whole year and have looked really good against GTech and Buffalo (even Liberty). The guard combos of Tunde Fatukasi/Nate Pabst and Bronson Warner/Jake Burns have done really well rotating back and forth. These 7 dudes should push around these not so good MAC teams remaining. Not to mention Terion Stewart leads the country in forced missed tackles, is this teams best player in my opinions, and seems to get over 100 yards any time you give him at least 10 carries. He is the spark of this offense and him punishing opposing defenses should wear them down, especially when playing a team that has no hope of bowling on a lowly attended weeknight game. I am not being funny, do you think if Western Michigan is 3-8 in a cold weeknight game with 2k people in the stands is going to want to deal with this rushing attack in the very last game of the season? Not a chance and with Orth's dual threat ability, defense will not be able to sell out on the run and we create a blocking advantage with him on the QB powers.  

Ay Ziggy! Go Falcons!


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