CFB Win Totals 2022
2022 CFB Win Totals
Last season, I went 8-3-1 in my win total locks. That is fantastic in case it wasn't clear. This season I am taking the same approach, sticking with teams I know instead of chasing the big names. Some of these are gross, some may even be ugly, but they don't have to be pretty to win. Sports gambling is fun and has become more mainstream in recent years, but as always, stay safe. Don't bet money you wouldn't mind seeing be lit on fire.
1. Bowling Green Over 3.5 wins
This win total is 2 games higher than last year's win total of 1.5. Last season BGSU went 4-8 with a YOUNG roster. I mean YOUNG. Crushing the win total over before conference play even began. I think this team is poised to make another step forward, possibly even go bowling for the first time since 2015. The non-con is tough but I am still pretty certain this team's absolute floor is going 4-8. MAC play is always a toss up and with 17 incoming transfers I think Vegas is going to continue to misread this team.
2. UMass Over 2.5 wins
Okay, I know I got heartbroken going over a win total of just 1.5 as UMass went just 1-11 in 2021. However, I am a huge believer in Don Brown who is back at UMass as Head Coach. Bringing in a ton of transfers, I think this UMass team can rattle of some upsets in year 1 of the 2nd Don Brown era. UMass only plays 1 Power 5 team this year, a really bad FCS school, and plays a bunch of MAC schools to create some wins. UConn and New Mexico State are also winnable. I even think Vegas bumping up UMass' win total despite being HORRENDOUS last season (losing to two FCS schools) tells me the oddsmakers see something they like.
3. Texas Over 8 wins
Yes, Texas went 5-7 last year and lost to Kansas. Yes, Texas is usually disappointing. I am still a believer in Steve Sarkisian. Texas grabs Quinn Ewers in the transfer portal from OSU. Sark is continuing to recruit at an élite level;. Texas needs another year to adjust to Sark's culture that Tom Herman just didn't have going for them. I think Texas has a better roster than everyone in the BIG12. Despite catching Alabama in the non-con, Texas has a very manageable Big12 schedule as well as UTSA and ULM at home. In my eyes, this team is going 9-3 at worst so an over of 8 with push assurance at 8-4 is amazing value. Hook Em.
@The Player's Tribune
4. New Mexico Over 2.5 wins
The Lobos are amidst a rebuild under strong-style coach Danny Gonzalez. He has a fire and a passion that I think will allow the Lobos to get respectable again in the Mountain West. Brining in Miles Kendrick at QB, having the defense continue to keep things tight, I think this Lobos team will go 3-9 or better. UNM will have FCS Maine and New Mexico State that is in a HUGE rebuild right now that should both be wins. That leaves 10 games to grab just one win. I would circle UTEP, UNLV, Wyoming and Colorado State as the contenders for that one win.
@Daily Lobo
5. Wyoming Under 5 wins
The Cowboys went 6-6 last season and are regularly contending for Bowls under Craig Bohl. Wyoming is not an easy job and Bohl has been rock solid in the yellow and brown. However last season Wyoming went 6-6 despite playing ZERO Power 5 teams. This year they catch Illinois and BYU that will both be almost sure fire losses. This team also got their past receiver taken in the portal by Texas, their best QB taken by Utah State, so with a harder schedule and a worse roster than 2021 I will assume this team will at least go back one win. With Push assurance at 5-7 I will be taking the under.
6. New Mexico State Under 3 wins
The NMSU Aggies is THE hardest job in college football. With very little high school talent in New Mexico, the Aggies have had 5 winning seasons in 50 years. Jerry Kill takes over as the head coach and despite bringing in transfer help, I cannot see this team improving from 2-10 last year to 4-8 this year. While NMSU does not have a super tough schedule, I just think the Jerry Kill rebuild is going to take some time and with the push assurance at 3-9 I am all over the under here.
7. Ball State Under 5.5 wins
I really think the 2020 Ball State season was very COVID induced. Half the MAC played like 3 total games. Ball State's win total was 8 last year and I crushed the under for an EASY win. The Cardinals lose all their super seniors that were supposed to be great last year and now have an even worse roster than the disappointment that was 2021 for the cards as they were favored to win the MAC West. While Ball State once again only plays 1 P5 team and gets UConn in the non-con I still think they well get buried in MAC play and will not go bowling this year.
8. Buffalo Under 5.5 wins
Buffalo was a program under duress for most of their history. Lance Leipold came in and changed everything. Now That Mo Linguist is in the cockpit, I am still unsure about Buffalo's trajectory. The Bulls went 4-8 last year with a win total of 8. Despite all the transfers coming in, I have no reason to be high on the Bulls and see value in betting on this team to miss bowl.
9. UTEP Over 5.5 wins
UTEP is another very difficulty job and Dana Dimel may be mining gold. Utilizing the JUCO players, UTEP has found their niche. Despite starting 2-22, Dimel went 7-5 last season and almost won a bowl game against Fresno State. I think UTEP will continue to play hard, still has QB Gavin Hardison, and catches some favorable games at home. The Miners always play hard under Dimel and should be able to beat North Texas, FIU, Rice, and both New Mexico schools and just need to catch one or two more.
10. UConn Over 2.5 wins
The Jim Mora Jr era begins at UConn. Despite being a very difficult job, Mora has already hammered the transfer portal including taking Daquan Roberson from Penn State. Mora is a solid coach who should be able to get the Huskies back to a bowl team. It will take a while to build this program back up and the 2022 schedule is BRUTAL. UConn gets 4 P5 schools, Army, Fresno State, and is already 28 point dawgs against Utah State in week 1. So why am I taking the over? UConn will beat their FCS school then has FIU, Ball State, UMass and a Liberty team without Malik Willis. I think they can rattle of two wins in that stretch to go 3-9 this year.
11. East Carolina U 6.5 wins
East Carolina finally broke their 7 year bowl drought going 7-5 last year in a very impressive season. Mike Houston is a really good coach, Holton Ahlers returns for what feels like his 10th season under center. I really like this ECU team but going 7-5 again is going to be tough to do. With almost locked in losses against Cincy, Houston, BYU, UCF, and NC State, I think going 7-0 in their other games is going to be impossible. This team would be impressive going 6-6 this year which is doable while still hitting the under of 7.
@ECU Athletics
12. Arizona Under 2.5 wins
I think the Wildcats made a great hire in Jedd Fisch and are trending in the right direction. However, the roster is still a mess and the portal cannot make your team that much better (in the P5) in one season. Their season opener is against San Diego State who is FAVORED -5 points. Their lone FCS game is against North Dakota State who is already at an FBS level. I think going 3-9 this year is straight up impossible even if they beat SDSU or NDSU. They would have to beat both to have a chance to hit the 3rd win.
@Arizona Desert Swarm
13. Vanderbilt Over 2.5 wins
Hear me out on this one. Vandy will probably go 0-8 in the SEC. However, I know Clark Lea is changing the culture of this team and now has another year to get going on the rebuild. I think Vandy has locked in wins against hapless Hawaii and FCS Elon. This entire win total will rely on Vandy's game against NIU. I know NIU is going to be solid, but I think this is still an SEC team, they are a MAC team and will be out played. It is really stupid this game is on the road for Vanderbilt but I still see a W here and this team going 3-9.
@The Vanderbilt Hustler
14. Colorado Under 3 wins
This team is just getting killed by the transfer portal. Everyone wants out, no one wants in. I honestly think that the Buffs will lose all 3 non-con games against TCU, Air Force, and Minnesota. Even if they just go 1-2 in those games, I cannot see better than 2 wins in Pac12 play. With push assurance on 3-9, I am on the under here and loving it. From what I have heard, this program is on it's way down to the bottom of the Pac12.
@The Denver Post
15. Georgia Tech Under 3.5 wins
Geoff Collins was not given the easiest task in transitioning GTech away from running the triple option under legendary Paul Johnson. Collins was going to need extra time to get this roster set up, however Georgia Tech is in a big market and is not recruiting all that well. Combining that with Collins' Yellow Jackets going 3-9, 3-7 (in a covid year), and 3-9 last season. I really believe that the higher ups are not going to give Collins more time with little shown improvement. With a coach that could get fired mid season and a very difficult schedule I am loving the under. Tech draws Florida State and Clemson from the Atlantic division (oof) and has Georgia, Ole Miss, and UCF for their FBS non-cons. I really think Tech will only be favored in 2 games (FCS and Duke) so I am ready to sweat out this under. I see this team going 3-9 again.
@The Rumble Seat
16. Houston Over 9 wins
Houston is ranked 35th in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings and returns a lot of last year's main contributors. For the non-con I see Houston going 3-1 against UTSA, Rice, Texas Tech, and Kansas. After that, Houston can get two more losses to just push us here and avoids Cincy and UCF in AAC play. That is as favorable as a schedule as it gets. I think Houston, who really gave Cincy a run for the AAC last year, will be back in the championship game and 9-3 in my mind is the bottom of this team's potential.
@The Athletic
17. Coastal Carolina Over 8 wins
Coastal Carolina is 22-3 with Grayson McCall under center and the experienced signal caller is back for another year. Jamey Chadwell as this RPO offense humming and the Chanticleers have been on fire in the Fun Belt. My projections have CCU going 5-1 to start the season, pulling in a FCS school, Army, and Buffalo in their first 3 non-cons. While Coastal's defense is projected to be pretty bad this year, I see potential in their unit to do just enough while the offense stays firing on all cylinders. If the Chants can just go 3-3 in the back half of the schedule, push at 8-4 as well as getting plus value I like this investment.
18. Old Dominion Under 4.5 wins
The Monarchs may have just went 6-6 in 2021 but boy was it fun. ODU started out 1-6 in Ricky Rahne's first year with the clipboard. The Monarchs then rallied to go 5-0 and go bowling. However, ODU has left Conference USA for a much harder Sun Belt and I project them to stumble because of the strength of schedule. With VTech, Virginia, Liberty, and East Carolina in the non-con I think 0-4 is a strong chance here. I see almost locked in losses against App State, Coastal, and Marshall. ODU may be trending up but I do not have much faith in the Monarchs in 2022.
19. Rice Over 3.5 wins
The Owls went 4-8 in 2021 under 4th year Coach Mike Bloomgren. Technically they have improved by a win each year (I don't count 2020 for most programs). However last year even rattling off 4 wins Rice was ranked 126th in Bill Connelly's SP+. Rice is a tough job, the Owls have not been bowling since 2014 and have not won the C-USA since 2013. I do not have confidence Mike Bloomgren is the man for the job as Rice has had its most success under young offensive minds such as David Baliff and Tom Herman. Bloomgren is a defensive guy and if he does not go bowling in year 5 it is likely he will be done in Houston. On a high note, the Owls have Christian McCaffrey's younger brother Luke. Luke transferred into the program before last season and is now a full time WR. Bill Connelly gives the Owls a 1% chance to go 6-6 let alone 4-8 again, take the under.
Now that I switched to the over, my reasoning is depth and transfers. Rice brings in 17 transfers and has a lot of depth, not too high on this team, but 4-8 is seeming way more likely than 3-9.
Update 8/2/2022: I am taking Rice over 3.5 I talked to some people and am now convinced that 3 C-USA wins are more likely than 2.
Recap
Overs: 10
Unders: 9
By Conference
AAC: 2
ACC: 1
Big12: 1
CUSA: 2
Indy: 3
MAC: 3
MWC: 2
Pac12: 2
SEC: 1
SBC: 2
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