MAC 2023 Win Totals
2023 MAC Win Totals
Last season, I shoved that low ball 3.5 number down Vegas' throat as that was my super max bet of the year. Obviously BG crushed that over by reaching 6 wins. This year Vegas put out a great number for BG, let's dive into all the MAC win totals.
I also want to add that my win range is just a 3 game window around my predicted record. So if I am projecting Bowling Green to go 6-6 like I did last year, my range for the Falcons would be 5-7 wins. I cannot stand when writers or analyst predict 3-8 wins for a team. Congrats, you covered 80% of the possible outcomes. Stick with your projection, plus one win and minus one win for the range.
Akron
Win Total: 3.5
My Win Range: 3-5
My Bet: Stay Away
(photo: Pittsburgh Post Gazette)
The Zips got the number BG had last season. I do not see a scenario where the Zips go bowling this year but it is the MAC. BG went from 2-6 in MAC play to 5-3 in just one year. Akron is bringing in transfers and Coach Moorehead is trying to establish a winning culture. I think bowl eligibility will come soon but I am not confident enough to play this total either way. My win range is 3-5, going 1-3 in non-con play would mean needing 3-5 in MAC play to hit the over. Given the close losses last year I will assume that is possible and do not want to bet this one.
Ball State
Win Total: 4.5
My Win Range: 4-6
My Bet: Stay Away
The Cards have only made 2 bowl games in the 7 years under Mike Neu but won the MAC in 2020. I am lower on Ball State than most this year and I cashed their win total under last season. This year I am staying away. I could see 2-2 or 1-3 in the non-con portion. I think Ball State brought in a solid QB in Layne Thatcher and could very easily go 3-5 or better in MAC play. I really believe the Cards either go bowling this year or fall apart, go 2-10 and Neu is fired. Since I see a lot of variance, I am staying away.
Bowling Green
Win Total: 5.5
My Win Range: 5-7
My Bet: Stay Away
Back to back years I have easily cashed the win total over for our Falcons. In 2021 the win total was 1.5 and BG went 4-8. In 2023 the total was 3.5 and BG went 6-6. Finally Vegas has put out a good number and at least for now I will not bet. The Falcons obviously return the veteran staff with Coach Loeffler in a pivotal year for his program. It is year 5 but with the craziness of the transfer portal, roster turnover is high once again. 3 year starter Matt McDonald is gone so all eyes will likely be on Mizzou/Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak to lead the Falcons. The non-con schedule is tough and MAC play is always wacky, so I will not touch this unless it gets bet down to 5 even, then I would take the over.
UPDATE: The line has since dropped to 5 with +105 odds to the over. That scares me because the sharps bet it down half a win and Vegas wants you to help even it by taking the over. I will ride on this and if it drops to 4.5 I would love that over a lot.
Buffalo
Win Total: 7
My Win Range: 5-7
My Bet: Under
Buffalo is in a pivotal year for year 3 Coach Mo Linguist. Coach Mo is a good coach but this is now the point where we see if he can take this Bulls team to the heights Lance Leipold did or not. Coach Leipold is a legendary Coach and now 3 years removed we will see if this Bulls team will be the team that smashed Eastern and BG, or the team that lost to an FCS squad. It was an up and down year (as it usually is for MAC schools) so I will go under. My win range sees 7 wins as best case scenario so that would at worst push my bet.
Central Michigan
Win Total: 5.5
My Win Range: 4-6
My Bet: Under
The Chips are in year 5 for Jim McElwain. Coach McElwain has done a great job at CMU, bringing home a West Division Title and a bowl win over a P5 school. CMU had their first losing season in this era last year at 4-8 so given the MAC's parity I think Coach McElwain is no where near the hot seat. CMU has a lot returning and has brought in only a few transfers so I feel like they could go 4-4 in MAC play and still fall under 6 wins. Very tough non-con so I am leaning under but given how solid CMU typically is they could bust this. I see 6 wins as the absolute max so I am gonna fire on this under.
Eastern Michigan
Win Total: 6.5
My Win Range: 6-8
My Bet: Over
The Eagles under Chris Creighton have thrived. Creighton took over one of the worst programs in the country and is the most under rated coach in the MAC for what he has done. EMU has a favorable non-con and there is a real chance at 3-1. I think 2-2 is worst case for them. Then the Eagles in my opinion will compete for the MAC West with Toledo, leading me to believe that 5-3 in MAC play may be worst case scenario. The QB is gone but I feel like Eastern is just such a sturdy program that they'll be fine HOWEVER in gambling it is smart to buy low and sell high. That is what scares me about taking the over.
Kent State
Win Total: 2.5
My Win Range: 2-4
My Bet: Stay Away
I am so torn on this team. On one hand, I feel the Flashes could bottom out. They missed a bowl last year despite a ton of talent, Sean Lewis left and so did A LOT of players, and I am not impressed by the hire of Kenni Burns. Kent has been a historically bad program and Sean Lewis did all he could there. On the other hand, the transfer portal allows new coaches to rebuild much faster. Kent's non-con is brutal so they will likely start MAC play 1-3. Then in the MAC, the West draw is Eastern, NIU, and Ball State which I could see 1-2. I am going to stay away as my range is 2-4 and that 2.5 number just scares me if the Flashes really do bottom out. I would lean over but I will not fire on anything.
Miami OH
Win Total: 6.5
My Win Range: 5-7
My Bet: Stay Away
Miami is another team where I could see 4-8 but also see them make a stab at the MAC Championship. I will say it a million times, the MAC has parity. I am really seeing 6 wins on the dot for this team, so I will stay away. The advanced metrics loved Miami OH last year and many predict a rebound to competing for the East but I see a time that has under performed for 3 straight years on offense despite a great defense. I think Coach Martin could be in Oxford forever but I think many fans are waiting for their offense to take the next step.
Northern Illinois
Win Total: 6.5
My Win Range: 4-6
My Bet: Under
Tough non-con, Toledo and Eastern are humming. The Huskies' East draw is Kent, Akron, and Ohio which seems favorable but Akron blew their doors off last year. Everyone else is super high on the Huskies to rebound this year, I am not. I crushed the win total under last year and this year I am taking the under again. I truly do not believe the injuries were the reason for the 3-9 collapse after winning the MAC in 2021. In this league, there are no Bryce Youngs, or Quinn Ewers. The next man up usually is not THAT much worse. Coach Hammock won a MAC Championship which is historic but other than that the Huskies are 6-16 in MAC play outside of 2021. I feel pretty good about this under.
Ohio
Win Total: 7
My Win Range: 6-8
My Bet: Stay Away
Again, the MAC is the best example of parity but with Kurtis Rourke returning, I think the Bobcats will have another good season. I could totally see another 6-2 MAC season now that Tim Albin seems to have a handle on being the head coach. Ohio has two tough G5 teams in the non-con so if they split at 2-2 than they will be right around that 7 number. I think Vegas nailed this number and I will be staying away. If you wanted to take the under to sell high on a MAC schoolI totally get it.
Toledo
Win Total: 9.5
My Win Range: 7-9
My Bet: Under
The reigning MAC Champs got the highest win total from Vegas. Do I think Toledo will be good again? Of course. They have not gone under 6 wins in a long time. However, this is the ultimate sell high situation. On principle alone, I will always bet on a MAC school to get under 10 wins and will sell on the highest team every year just like I did with NIU last year. Even if UT goes 3-1 in the non-con, 6-2 in MAC play is more than reasonable. MAC schools just rarely get 10 wins and Toledo has done it just ONCE in the last 22 seasons. Give me that under no doubt. This team returns a lot, did not lose many transfers, this is purely a principle bet.
Western Michigan
Win Total: 3.5
My Win Range: 2-4
My Bet: Under
Same deal as Kent State. This team fired their head coach though after just his first season not bowling. I am not thrilled with the roster, the incoming transfers, or the head coach hire. Their non-con is the hardest in the MAC so if they go 1-3 then in MAC play I would need 2-6 or worse. In the portal era, I really do not think many teams will bottom out in a conference with great parity but I am thinking WMU might do it here. 3-9 feels really reasonable so I am going to fire on the under. I do not think Hayden Wolff is a massive upgrade over their recent QBs and even though their offense will likely improve, I do not trust first time head coaches in their first year.
Review
My bets are
1. Toledo U 9.5
2. Buffalo U 7
3. Eastern Michigan O 6.5
4. NIU U 6.5
5. CMU U 5.5
6. WMU U 3.5
7. Bowling Green O 5
Betting on half the conference likely will be a disaster but I have a good feeling and will hopefully take BG O 5 even if the line drops down. Based on my bets, I really need to the East to beat the West in most of the matchups. The benefit of having a bunch is diversifying the portfolio, hoping to go 4-2 or 3-3 at worst. No, I am not just taking unders because I hate the other MAC schools, I just think typically the MAC loses non-con games to other G5 teams and P5 schools.
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